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Research Article
SARIMA Model-Based Maximum Temperature Forecasting in Bangladesh: A Data-Driven Evaluation from 1981 to 2024
Issue:
Volume 10, Issue 4, December 2024
Pages:
96-104
Received:
31 August 2024
Accepted:
20 September 2024
Published:
18 October 2024
DOI:
10.11648/j.ajbes.20241004.11
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Abstract: Bangladesh is a tropical nation where there are notable seasonal temperature changes. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model is used in this study to forecast Bangladesh's maximum temperature from 2023 to 2042. The objective is to assess how rising temperatures can affect public health, energy consumption, and agriculture. Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation analysis will be used to improve the model. Analysis was done using historical maximum temperature data spanning from 1981 to 2022. Forecasts were produced using the SARIMA model, whose parameters were chosen in accordance with plots of the autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF). The model SARIMA (1,1,2)(0,0,1) is selected based on AIC. In order to account for forecast uncertainty, forecasts were created for the years 2023–2042. 95% prediction ranges were then calculated. Bangladesh's maximum temperatures are predicted by the SARIMA model to rise gradually, from roughly 33.75°C in 2023 to 34.17°C in 2042. With some degree of uncertainty, the 95% prediction intervals show a steady increasing trend between 33.53°C and 34.51°C. The anticipated increase in the highest temperatures has major consequences for Bangladesh. These results highlight how crucial it is to create adaptation plans and laws in order to lessen the effects of warming temperatures and increase resilience.
Abstract: Bangladesh is a tropical nation where there are notable seasonal temperature changes. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model is used in this study to forecast Bangladesh's maximum temperature from 2023 to 2042. The objective is to assess how rising temperatures can affect public health, energy consumption, and agricult...
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Research Article
Conservation Agriculture Effects on Crop and Moisture in Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia
Yaya Tesfa*
,
Jemal Abdulahi
Issue:
Volume 10, Issue 4, December 2024
Pages:
105-113
Received:
12 November 2024
Accepted:
4 December 2024
Published:
23 December 2024
DOI:
10.11648/j.ajbes.20241004.12
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Abstract: Cropping systems of maize-legume crops which mostly practiced under conventional practice has resulted in soil degradation and loss of crop yield in Ethiopia. This practice may be inversed by Conservation Agriculture. Optical sensor techniques particularly normalized difference vegetative index is immediate, non-devastative and quantitative assessment method; which opposes conventional plant tissue sampling analysis which is devastating and needs more time. CA practice may enhance soil water and crop yield. CA can improve soil health and crop productivity. It was suggested that CA should be studied by considering both crop and soil parameters in Ethiopia. By considering this field experiment was done at Melkassa agricultural research center during the rainy season of 2018 and 2019 to study the impacts of conventional practice and conservational practice under different cropping systems. Split plot treatment design with 3 replication was used. Two tillage levels were assigned to the main plots and four maize-legume systems were assigned to the sub plots. Results implied that conservation agriculture plot was early in maize emergence and late in maize tasseling, silking and physiological maturity than conventional practice. Maize bean intercropping under conservational was better in maize yield, biomass and harvest index than maize bean intercropping under conventional practice. High normalized difference vegetative index value was recorded under conventional practice for the earlier periods and low value was recorded under conservational practice during earlier periods of maize growing periods. However, Normal difference vegetative index was become higher for conservational practice during grain filling maize grain filling stage. Better soil moisture content at various soil depth was obtained from maize rotation system under conservational practice than cropping system under conventional practice.
Abstract: Cropping systems of maize-legume crops which mostly practiced under conventional practice has resulted in soil degradation and loss of crop yield in Ethiopia. This practice may be inversed by Conservation Agriculture. Optical sensor techniques particularly normalized difference vegetative index is immediate, non-devastative and quantitative assessm...
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Research Article
Assessment of Forest Carbon Sequestered in Dead Wood from Secondary Forest, Wildlife Reserve, Lefini Republic of Congo
Pierre Mbete*,
Guénolé Géraud Sidoine Mankou,
Alain Yves Mavoungou,
Franck Gabrielle Ekandja,
Félix Koubouana
Issue:
Volume 10, Issue 4, December 2024
Pages:
114-123
Received:
13 March 2024
Accepted:
19 April 2024
Published:
25 December 2024
DOI:
10.11648/j.ajbes.20241004.13
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Abstract: Dead wood, referred to here as necromass, is considered to be an important reservoir of forest carbon. In Congo, studies on the estimation of carbon in deadwood are scarce, so very little data exists that could contribute to the reflection on the national forest carbon measurement and monitoring program. It is in this context that this study on the estimation of forest carbon stored in dead wood from a secondary forest, in the "Bateke Plateau" landscape, was conducted. One hundred and three (103) standing deadwood samples and thirty-two (32) ground-lying deadwood samples, all ≥ 10 cm in diameter, were recorded over 1.79 km of transects, using the linear intersection sampling method. These deadwoods are mostly not in an advanced stage of decomposition, and are most abundant in smaller diameter classes. On average, the total carbon stock contained in the necromass is 0.067 t. ha-1 (±0.08). This carbon stock does not represent a significant share (0.01%) of the total above-ground carbon for trees ≥ 10 cm in diameter in plot 1. This study also showed that the carbon stock in the necromass varies very little between the study plots but not according to the type of dead wood considered. These results suggest that it is very important to reduce anthropogenic pressure on the forests of the Léfini Wildlife Reserve in order to strengthen carbon sinks.
Abstract: Dead wood, referred to here as necromass, is considered to be an important reservoir of forest carbon. In Congo, studies on the estimation of carbon in deadwood are scarce, so very little data exists that could contribute to the reflection on the national forest carbon measurement and monitoring program. It is in this context that this study on the...
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Review Article
Crop Physiology and Food Quality as Influenced by the Changing Climate: A Review Article
Jemal Bekere Adem*
Issue:
Volume 10, Issue 4, December 2024
Pages:
124-130
Received:
3 December 2024
Accepted:
16 December 2024
Published:
30 December 2024
DOI:
10.11648/j.ajbes.20241004.14
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Abstract: Before some decades, the gaseous composition of earth’s atmosphere is undergoing a significant change, largely through increased greenhouse gases emissions from energy, industry and agricultural sectors; widespread deforestation as well as fast changes in land use and land management practices. These anthropogenic activities are resulting in an increased emission of radioactively active gases, viz. carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), popularly known as the ‘greenhouse gases’ (GHGs). These greenhouse gases trap the outgoing infrared radiations from the earth’s surface and thus raise the temperature of the atmosphere. The global mean annual temperature at the end of the 20th century, as a result of GHG accumulation in the atmosphere, has increased by 0.4-0.7°C above that recorded at the end of the 19th century. The past 50 years have shown an increasing trend in temperature at 0.13°C / decade, while the rise in temperature during the past one and half decades has been much higher. The changing climate also has an impact on crop physiology, including photosynthesis, nutrient absorption, partition to grain yield and accumulation of biomass of the plants. Food quality also affected due to elevated CO2 and temperature. Therefore, economically viable and culturally acceptable adaptation strategies have to be developed and implemented. Farmers apply drought tolerant varieties, sowing time, nutrient use efficiency and other methods to alleviate the climate change challenges. Furthermore, the transfer of knowledge as well as access to social, economic, institutional, and technical resources need to be provided and integrated within the existing resources of farmers.
Abstract: Before some decades, the gaseous composition of earth’s atmosphere is undergoing a significant change, largely through increased greenhouse gases emissions from energy, industry and agricultural sectors; widespread deforestation as well as fast changes in land use and land management practices. These anthropogenic activities are resulting in an inc...
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Review Article
A Review on the Effects of Broodiness Characteristics on Egg Productivity, Hatchability, and Chick Quality of Indigenous Chicken in Ethiopia
Seyoum Bekele Alemu,
Sileshi Gadisa Terfa*
Issue:
Volume 10, Issue 4, December 2024
Pages:
131-138
Received:
21 November 2024
Accepted:
6 December 2024
Published:
30 December 2024
DOI:
10.11648/j.ajbes.20241004.15
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Abstract: Broodiness is an action or behavioral tendency to sit on a clutch of eggs to incubate and hatch them, with non-expression of other behaviors such as feeding and drinking and, it is due to the secretion of the hormone prolactin by the anterior lobe of the hypothesis. It is breed-dependent, some breeds have the highest long last incidence, some may have less and the others may not. Breeds such as Cochin, Cornish, Sickie, Quail, Pheasants, Turkeys, and Geese have a high tendency to broodiness but in some breeds such as the White Leghorn, broodiness is extremely rare. The Ethiopian indigenous chickens are none descriptive breeds closely related to the Jungle fowl and vary in color, comb type, body conformation, and weight and different broodiness behavior. The poultry breeding programs that is used to improve the productivity of indigenous chickens should target economical traits and consider the current and future production circumstances. Even though the broodiness characteristics of indigenous chicken is considered as antagonistic to egg production, it plays a pivotal role in rural and smallholder poultry production for subsistence poultry keeping and product utilization due to effective and successful maternity characteristics of hen for sustained and growth of chicks.
Abstract: Broodiness is an action or behavioral tendency to sit on a clutch of eggs to incubate and hatch them, with non-expression of other behaviors such as feeding and drinking and, it is due to the secretion of the hormone prolactin by the anterior lobe of the hypothesis. It is breed-dependent, some breeds have the highest long last incidence, some may h...
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Research Article
Assessment of the Quality of Traditionally Produced Honey in Borana Rangelands, Southern Ethiopia
Gayo Ginbe Borde*,
Tamirat Tessema Teklemichael
Issue:
Volume 10, Issue 4, December 2024
Pages:
139-149
Received:
5 December 2024
Accepted:
20 December 2024
Published:
31 December 2024
DOI:
10.11648/j.ajbes.20241004.16
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Abstract: Beekeeping has long been a vital sideline activity for agro-pastoral communities in the Borana rangelands, primarily aimed at income generation. This study aimed to assess the impact of beekeeping practices on honey production in the study area. A multistage sampling technique was employed to collect the data from traditional beekeeper households (HHs). The collected data encompassed the socio-economic characteristics of households, land and livestock holdings, and honey production practices, types of honey forages, honey yields, the contribution of honey to household income, as well as the constraints and opportunities associated with honey production. A total of 70 distinct types of nectar and pollen sources were identified that serve as major forages for bees in the area. The migration of honeybee colonies occurred in different months of the year, predominantly in December (75.9%), followed by January (11.7%) and February (6.8%), as reported by respondents. The average honey yield was 12 kg annually, with a peak yield of 21 kg. The occurrence of migration occurred in December and January, respectively, with an average of 75.9% of respondents reporting erratic and uneven rainfall. The findings of this study highlight the importance of modernizing traditional methods by integrating advanced technologies to enhance honey production and significantly increase production. To effectively mitigate migration and reduce the rate of absconding, it is essential to implement strategic supplementary feeding and improved pest control methods.
Abstract: Beekeeping has long been a vital sideline activity for agro-pastoral communities in the Borana rangelands, primarily aimed at income generation. This study aimed to assess the impact of beekeeping practices on honey production in the study area. A multistage sampling technique was employed to collect the data from traditional beekeeper households (...
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