Coordination Analysis and Scale Forecast of Urban Population Growth and Land Expansion in Henan Province

Zhao Xiuyan; Zhou Pengchao; Yang Yongfang

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12

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Coordination Analysis and Scale Forecast of Urban Population Growth and Land Expansion in Henan Province

Zhao Xiuyan, Zhou Pengchao, Yang Yongfang

Published in American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics (Volume 3, Issue 2)

Received: 23 August 2018 Accepted: 11 September 2018 Published: 12 October 2018

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Abstract

With the rapid development of urbanization in Henan Province, it is of great significance to study the relationship between man and land in regional cities to grasp the quality of urban development and to promote the healthy development of urbanization. In this paper, data envelopment analysis (DEA), Kernel density analysis, gravity center model and Logistic model are used to analyze the evolution and coordination of urban population growth and land expansion in 18 cities of Henan Province from 2000 to 2014, and to predict their overall development trend. The results show that: (1) the urban land expansion rate in Henan Province is faster than the population growth rate on the whole, the spatial distribution of the two increment is mainly in Zhengzhou, Luoyang, Luohe and other core cities, and Anyang, Nanyang, Nanyang, etc. (2) the center of gravity of urban population and the center of gravity of land are both located in the southeast of Zhengzhou City, and the coordination relationship between them presents the situation of "Enhancement, Stability and Enhancement"; The spatial coordination between urban land expansion and population growth is weak, and the land advance development is the main factor. (3) before 2003, the urban population growth and land expansion kept in sync, The forecasting results show that slowing down the expansion of urban land properly and coordinating the relationship between human and land will be the future direction of urbanization in Henan Province.

Published in	American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics (Volume 3, Issue 2)
DOI	10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12
Page(s)	18-30
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2018. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Henan Province, Data Envelope Analysis, Coordinated, Logistic Prediction

References

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APA Style

Zhao Xiuyan, Zhou Pengchao, Yang Yongfang. (2018). Coordination Analysis and Scale Forecast of Urban Population Growth and Land Expansion in Henan Province. American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics, 3(2), 18-30. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12

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ACS Style

Zhao Xiuyan; Zhou Pengchao; Yang Yongfang. Coordination Analysis and Scale Forecast of Urban Population Growth and Land Expansion in Henan Province. Am. J. Environ. Resour. Econ. 2018, 3(2), 18-30. doi: 10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12

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AMA Style

Zhao Xiuyan, Zhou Pengchao, Yang Yongfang. Coordination Analysis and Scale Forecast of Urban Population Growth and Land Expansion in Henan Province. Am J Environ Resour Econ. 2018;3(2):18-30. doi: 10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12,
  author = {Zhao Xiuyan and Zhou Pengchao and Yang Yongfang},
  title = {Coordination Analysis and Scale Forecast of Urban Population Growth and Land Expansion in Henan Province},
  journal = {American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics},
  volume = {3},
  number = {2},
  pages = {18-30},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajere.20180302.12},
  abstract = {With the rapid development of urbanization in Henan Province, it is of great significance to study the relationship between man and land in regional cities to grasp the quality of urban development and to promote the healthy development of urbanization. In this paper, data envelopment analysis (DEA), Kernel density analysis, gravity center model and Logistic model are used to analyze the evolution and coordination of urban population growth and land expansion in 18 cities of Henan Province from 2000 to 2014, and to predict their overall development trend. The results show that: (1) the urban land expansion rate in Henan Province is faster than the population growth rate on the whole, the spatial distribution of the two increment is mainly in Zhengzhou, Luoyang, Luohe and other core cities, and Anyang, Nanyang, Nanyang, etc. (2) the center of gravity of urban population and the center of gravity of land are both located in the southeast of Zhengzhou City, and the coordination relationship between them presents the situation of "Enhancement, Stability and Enhancement"; The spatial coordination between urban land expansion and population growth is weak, and the land advance development is the main factor. (3) before 2003, the urban population growth and land expansion kept in sync, The forecasting results show that slowing down the expansion of urban land properly and coordinating the relationship between human and land will be the future direction of urbanization in Henan Province.},
 year = {2018}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Coordination Analysis and Scale Forecast of Urban Population Growth and Land Expansion in Henan Province
AU  - Zhao Xiuyan
AU  - Zhou Pengchao
AU  - Yang Yongfang
Y1  - 2018/10/12
PY  - 2018
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12
T2  - American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics
JF  - American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics
JO  - American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics
SP  - 18
EP  - 30
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2578-787X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12
AB  - With the rapid development of urbanization in Henan Province, it is of great significance to study the relationship between man and land in regional cities to grasp the quality of urban development and to promote the healthy development of urbanization. In this paper, data envelopment analysis (DEA), Kernel density analysis, gravity center model and Logistic model are used to analyze the evolution and coordination of urban population growth and land expansion in 18 cities of Henan Province from 2000 to 2014, and to predict their overall development trend. The results show that: (1) the urban land expansion rate in Henan Province is faster than the population growth rate on the whole, the spatial distribution of the two increment is mainly in Zhengzhou, Luoyang, Luohe and other core cities, and Anyang, Nanyang, Nanyang, etc. (2) the center of gravity of urban population and the center of gravity of land are both located in the southeast of Zhengzhou City, and the coordination relationship between them presents the situation of "Enhancement, Stability and Enhancement"; The spatial coordination between urban land expansion and population growth is weak, and the land advance development is the main factor. (3) before 2003, the urban population growth and land expansion kept in sync, The forecasting results show that slowing down the expansion of urban land properly and coordinating the relationship between human and land will be the future direction of urbanization in Henan Province.
VL  - 3
IS  - 2
ER  -

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Author Information

Zhao Xiuyan

College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng, China
Zhou Pengchao

School of Surveying and Urban Spatial Information, Henan University of Urban Construction, Pingdingshan, China
Yang Yongfang

College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng, China

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APA Style

Zhao Xiuyan, Zhou Pengchao, Yang Yongfang. (2018). Coordination Analysis and Scale Forecast of Urban Population Growth and Land Expansion in Henan Province. American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics, 3(2), 18-30. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12

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ACS Style

Zhao Xiuyan; Zhou Pengchao; Yang Yongfang. Coordination Analysis and Scale Forecast of Urban Population Growth and Land Expansion in Henan Province. Am. J. Environ. Resour. Econ. 2018, 3(2), 18-30. doi: 10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12

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AMA Style

Zhao Xiuyan, Zhou Pengchao, Yang Yongfang. Coordination Analysis and Scale Forecast of Urban Population Growth and Land Expansion in Henan Province. Am J Environ Resour Econ. 2018;3(2):18-30. doi: 10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12,
  author = {Zhao Xiuyan and Zhou Pengchao and Yang Yongfang},
  title = {Coordination Analysis and Scale Forecast of Urban Population Growth and Land Expansion in Henan Province},
  journal = {American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics},
  volume = {3},
  number = {2},
  pages = {18-30},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajere.20180302.12},
  abstract = {With the rapid development of urbanization in Henan Province, it is of great significance to study the relationship between man and land in regional cities to grasp the quality of urban development and to promote the healthy development of urbanization. In this paper, data envelopment analysis (DEA), Kernel density analysis, gravity center model and Logistic model are used to analyze the evolution and coordination of urban population growth and land expansion in 18 cities of Henan Province from 2000 to 2014, and to predict their overall development trend. The results show that: (1) the urban land expansion rate in Henan Province is faster than the population growth rate on the whole, the spatial distribution of the two increment is mainly in Zhengzhou, Luoyang, Luohe and other core cities, and Anyang, Nanyang, Nanyang, etc. (2) the center of gravity of urban population and the center of gravity of land are both located in the southeast of Zhengzhou City, and the coordination relationship between them presents the situation of "Enhancement, Stability and Enhancement"; The spatial coordination between urban land expansion and population growth is weak, and the land advance development is the main factor. (3) before 2003, the urban population growth and land expansion kept in sync, The forecasting results show that slowing down the expansion of urban land properly and coordinating the relationship between human and land will be the future direction of urbanization in Henan Province.},
 year = {2018}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Coordination Analysis and Scale Forecast of Urban Population Growth and Land Expansion in Henan Province
AU  - Zhao Xiuyan
AU  - Zhou Pengchao
AU  - Yang Yongfang
Y1  - 2018/10/12
PY  - 2018
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12
T2  - American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics
JF  - American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics
JO  - American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics
SP  - 18
EP  - 30
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2578-787X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12
AB  - With the rapid development of urbanization in Henan Province, it is of great significance to study the relationship between man and land in regional cities to grasp the quality of urban development and to promote the healthy development of urbanization. In this paper, data envelopment analysis (DEA), Kernel density analysis, gravity center model and Logistic model are used to analyze the evolution and coordination of urban population growth and land expansion in 18 cities of Henan Province from 2000 to 2014, and to predict their overall development trend. The results show that: (1) the urban land expansion rate in Henan Province is faster than the population growth rate on the whole, the spatial distribution of the two increment is mainly in Zhengzhou, Luoyang, Luohe and other core cities, and Anyang, Nanyang, Nanyang, etc. (2) the center of gravity of urban population and the center of gravity of land are both located in the southeast of Zhengzhou City, and the coordination relationship between them presents the situation of "Enhancement, Stability and Enhancement"; The spatial coordination between urban land expansion and population growth is weak, and the land advance development is the main factor. (3) before 2003, the urban population growth and land expansion kept in sync, The forecasting results show that slowing down the expansion of urban land properly and coordinating the relationship between human and land will be the future direction of urbanization in Henan Province.
VL  - 3
IS  - 2
ER  -

Copy | Download