Performance Evaluation and Comparison of a Stacking - Based Ensemble Model for Traffic Speed Prediction

Yuanzhe Cheng; Haoyang Lv; Hanrui Chen; Chengjie Ni; Yuyang Hu

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijefm.20231105.15

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Performance Evaluation and Comparison of a Stacking - Based Ensemble Model for Traffic Speed Prediction

Yuanzhe Cheng, Haoyang Lv, Hanrui Chen, Chengjie Ni, Yuyang Hu

Published in International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences (Volume 11, Issue 5)

Received: 31 August 2023 Accepted: 23 October 2023 Published: 31 October 2023

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Abstract

Accurate prediction of traffic speed plays a key role in easing traffic congestion and improving road utilization efficiency. However, traditional traffic analysis methods often fail to capture complex traffic patterns. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, traffic prediction using machine learning models has become a focal point of research. This study aims to explore the application of machine learning models in traffic speed analysis and prediction, by constructing a multi-model fusion method through stacking-based ensemble. Initially, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Linear Regression (LR), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Support Vector Regression (SVR) were selected as base models to predict the traffic speed. Then, their predictive performance was improved by optimizing the model parameters through Bayesian optimization algorithm. After contrast experiments, LR was adopted as a meta-regressor to merge the predictive factors of the optimized base models into a stacking-based ensemble model, improving the performance of traffic speed prediction further. Finally, the proposed ensemble model was evaluated using multiple traffic datasets. The experimental validation demonstrates that the ensemble model achieves outstanding performance in predicting traffic speed. The findings of this study highlight the potential of machine learning models, particularly the stacking-based ensemble method, in predicting the traffic speed.

Published in	International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences (Volume 11, Issue 5)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijefm.20231105.15
Page(s)	255-260
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Ensemble Model, Data Mining, Traffic Speed Prediction, Machine Learning, Bayesian Optimization

References

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APA Style

Yuanzhe Cheng, Haoyang Lv, Hanrui Chen, Chengjie Ni, Yuyang Hu. (2023). Performance Evaluation and Comparison of a Stacking - Based Ensemble Model for Traffic Speed Prediction. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 11(5), 255-260. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20231105.15

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ACS Style

Yuanzhe Cheng; Haoyang Lv; Hanrui Chen; Chengjie Ni; Yuyang Hu. Performance Evaluation and Comparison of a Stacking - Based Ensemble Model for Traffic Speed Prediction. Int. J. Econ. Finance Manag. Sci. 2023, 11(5), 255-260. doi: 10.11648/j.ijefm.20231105.15

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AMA Style

Yuanzhe Cheng, Haoyang Lv, Hanrui Chen, Chengjie Ni, Yuyang Hu. Performance Evaluation and Comparison of a Stacking - Based Ensemble Model for Traffic Speed Prediction. Int J Econ Finance Manag Sci. 2023;11(5):255-260. doi: 10.11648/j.ijefm.20231105.15

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@article{10.11648/j.ijefm.20231105.15,
  author = {Yuanzhe Cheng and Haoyang Lv and Hanrui Chen and Chengjie Ni and Yuyang Hu},
  title = {Performance Evaluation and Comparison of a Stacking - Based Ensemble Model for Traffic Speed Prediction},
  journal = {International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences},
  volume = {11},
  number = {5},
  pages = {255-260},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijefm.20231105.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20231105.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijefm.20231105.15},
  abstract = {Accurate prediction of traffic speed plays a key role in easing traffic congestion and improving road utilization efficiency. However, traditional traffic analysis methods often fail to capture complex traffic patterns. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, traffic prediction using machine learning models has become a focal point of research. This study aims to explore the application of machine learning models in traffic speed analysis and prediction, by constructing a multi-model fusion method through stacking-based ensemble. Initially, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Linear Regression (LR), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Support Vector Regression (SVR) were selected as base models to predict the traffic speed. Then, their predictive performance was improved by optimizing the model parameters through Bayesian optimization algorithm. After contrast experiments, LR was adopted as a meta-regressor to merge the predictive factors of the optimized base models into a stacking-based ensemble model, improving the performance of traffic speed prediction further. Finally, the proposed ensemble model was evaluated using multiple traffic datasets. The experimental validation demonstrates that the ensemble model achieves outstanding performance in predicting traffic speed. The findings of this study highlight the potential of machine learning models, particularly the stacking-based ensemble method, in predicting the traffic speed.
},
 year = {2023}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Performance Evaluation and Comparison of a Stacking - Based Ensemble Model for Traffic Speed Prediction
AU  - Yuanzhe Cheng
AU  - Haoyang Lv
AU  - Hanrui Chen
AU  - Chengjie Ni
AU  - Yuyang Hu
Y1  - 2023/10/31
PY  - 2023
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20231105.15
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijefm.20231105.15
T2  - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences
JF  - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences
JO  - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences
SP  - 255
EP  - 260
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2326-9561
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20231105.15
AB  - Accurate prediction of traffic speed plays a key role in easing traffic congestion and improving road utilization efficiency. However, traditional traffic analysis methods often fail to capture complex traffic patterns. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, traffic prediction using machine learning models has become a focal point of research. This study aims to explore the application of machine learning models in traffic speed analysis and prediction, by constructing a multi-model fusion method through stacking-based ensemble. Initially, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Linear Regression (LR), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Support Vector Regression (SVR) were selected as base models to predict the traffic speed. Then, their predictive performance was improved by optimizing the model parameters through Bayesian optimization algorithm. After contrast experiments, LR was adopted as a meta-regressor to merge the predictive factors of the optimized base models into a stacking-based ensemble model, improving the performance of traffic speed prediction further. Finally, the proposed ensemble model was evaluated using multiple traffic datasets. The experimental validation demonstrates that the ensemble model achieves outstanding performance in predicting traffic speed. The findings of this study highlight the potential of machine learning models, particularly the stacking-based ensemble method, in predicting the traffic speed.

VL  - 11
IS  - 5
ER  -

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Author Information

Yuanzhe Cheng

School of Yingyang Financial Technology, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou, China
Haoyang Lv

Jingying High School, Shijiazhuang, China
Hanrui Chen

Office of Scientific Research and Foreign Cooperation, Zhejiang-California International NanoSystems Institute, Hangzhou, China
Chengjie Ni

School of Information, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou, China
Yuyang Hu

School of Mechatronic Engineering, Sanming University, Sanming, China

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APA Style

Yuanzhe Cheng, Haoyang Lv, Hanrui Chen, Chengjie Ni, Yuyang Hu. (2023). Performance Evaluation and Comparison of a Stacking - Based Ensemble Model for Traffic Speed Prediction. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 11(5), 255-260. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20231105.15

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ACS Style

Yuanzhe Cheng; Haoyang Lv; Hanrui Chen; Chengjie Ni; Yuyang Hu. Performance Evaluation and Comparison of a Stacking - Based Ensemble Model for Traffic Speed Prediction. Int. J. Econ. Finance Manag. Sci. 2023, 11(5), 255-260. doi: 10.11648/j.ijefm.20231105.15

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AMA Style

Yuanzhe Cheng, Haoyang Lv, Hanrui Chen, Chengjie Ni, Yuyang Hu. Performance Evaluation and Comparison of a Stacking - Based Ensemble Model for Traffic Speed Prediction. Int J Econ Finance Manag Sci. 2023;11(5):255-260. doi: 10.11648/j.ijefm.20231105.15

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijefm.20231105.15,
  author = {Yuanzhe Cheng and Haoyang Lv and Hanrui Chen and Chengjie Ni and Yuyang Hu},
  title = {Performance Evaluation and Comparison of a Stacking - Based Ensemble Model for Traffic Speed Prediction},
  journal = {International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences},
  volume = {11},
  number = {5},
  pages = {255-260},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijefm.20231105.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20231105.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijefm.20231105.15},
  abstract = {Accurate prediction of traffic speed plays a key role in easing traffic congestion and improving road utilization efficiency. However, traditional traffic analysis methods often fail to capture complex traffic patterns. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, traffic prediction using machine learning models has become a focal point of research. This study aims to explore the application of machine learning models in traffic speed analysis and prediction, by constructing a multi-model fusion method through stacking-based ensemble. Initially, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Linear Regression (LR), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Support Vector Regression (SVR) were selected as base models to predict the traffic speed. Then, their predictive performance was improved by optimizing the model parameters through Bayesian optimization algorithm. After contrast experiments, LR was adopted as a meta-regressor to merge the predictive factors of the optimized base models into a stacking-based ensemble model, improving the performance of traffic speed prediction further. Finally, the proposed ensemble model was evaluated using multiple traffic datasets. The experimental validation demonstrates that the ensemble model achieves outstanding performance in predicting traffic speed. The findings of this study highlight the potential of machine learning models, particularly the stacking-based ensemble method, in predicting the traffic speed.
},
 year = {2023}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Performance Evaluation and Comparison of a Stacking - Based Ensemble Model for Traffic Speed Prediction
AU  - Yuanzhe Cheng
AU  - Haoyang Lv
AU  - Hanrui Chen
AU  - Chengjie Ni
AU  - Yuyang Hu
Y1  - 2023/10/31
PY  - 2023
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20231105.15
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijefm.20231105.15
T2  - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences
JF  - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences
JO  - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences
SP  - 255
EP  - 260
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2326-9561
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20231105.15
AB  - Accurate prediction of traffic speed plays a key role in easing traffic congestion and improving road utilization efficiency. However, traditional traffic analysis methods often fail to capture complex traffic patterns. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, traffic prediction using machine learning models has become a focal point of research. This study aims to explore the application of machine learning models in traffic speed analysis and prediction, by constructing a multi-model fusion method through stacking-based ensemble. Initially, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Linear Regression (LR), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Support Vector Regression (SVR) were selected as base models to predict the traffic speed. Then, their predictive performance was improved by optimizing the model parameters through Bayesian optimization algorithm. After contrast experiments, LR was adopted as a meta-regressor to merge the predictive factors of the optimized base models into a stacking-based ensemble model, improving the performance of traffic speed prediction further. Finally, the proposed ensemble model was evaluated using multiple traffic datasets. The experimental validation demonstrates that the ensemble model achieves outstanding performance in predicting traffic speed. The findings of this study highlight the potential of machine learning models, particularly the stacking-based ensemble method, in predicting the traffic speed.

VL  - 11
IS  - 5
ER  -

Copy | Download