Dynamic Assessment of Agriculture and Economic Growth Nexus in Morocco: Evidence from Structural VAR and Directed Acyclic Graphs

Ouahiba Elalaoui; Khalil Allali; Aziz Fadlaoui; Nassreddine Maatala; Abdelouafi Ibrahimy

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijefm.20221004.11

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Dynamic Assessment of Agriculture and Economic Growth Nexus in Morocco: Evidence from Structural VAR and Directed Acyclic Graphs

Ouahiba Elalaoui, Khalil Allali, Aziz Fadlaoui, Nassreddine Maatala, Abdelouafi Ibrahimy

Published in International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences (Volume 10, Issue 4)

Received: 31 May 2022 Accepted: 27 June 2022 Published: 5 July 2022

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Abstract

The recurrence of international crises and their negative impact on the economy and household food security has stimulated a strong revival of interest in the role of the agricultural sector and its relationship with the national economy. Recently, a macro-econometric model has shown a well-established bidirectional causality nexus between the agricultural sector and the Moroccan economy. However, the assessment of the magnitude of effects in both directions and their historical evolution are crucial topics that have not yet been explored. The current study empirically examines the dynamic interrelationships between Moroccan agriculture and GDP using the structural VAR model. The data set consists of the annual macroeconomic time series covering the period 1980-2019, namely: GDP per capita, agricultural GDP, investment rate, money supply and trade openness. This paper exploits recent advances in artificial intelligence to determine the over-identifying restrictions, through Directed Acyclic Graphs. Impulse response functions reveal that the Moroccan economy is very sensitive to agricultural shocks compared to shocks due to other endogenous variables, meanwhile the agricultural sector is very reactive to its shocks. The results from the variance decomposition show that the agricultural shocks are the most important driver of economic growth fluctuations and account for almost 69% of the forecast error variance for the first year. The share of GDP shocks in the variance of the forecast error of agricultural GDP does not exceed 7% for a ten-year horizon, while agricultural shocks dominate the decomposition variance profile and never fall below the 74% threshold. These results highlight the predominance of the Agriculture-Led Growth hypothesis in comparison with the Growth-Led Agriculture hypothesis. The findings resulting from the historical decomposition reconfirm the historical dependence between the national economy and agriculture. This sector sometimes acts as a shock absorber, counteracting the poor performance of other sectors of the economy. Under the Structural VAR model, the historical analysis illustrates that the national economy is increasingly resilient to agricultural shocks because of the improved resilience of Moroccan agriculture to climate shocks. Although the impact of agriculture is historically prominent, the magnitude of its impact has significantly reduced by 22% between 1982-1999 and 2000-2019. Given the strong potential of the agricultural sector to promote economic growth, policymakers should continue to create favorable conditions to support the development of the sector.

Published in	International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences (Volume 10, Issue 4)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijefm.20221004.11
Page(s)	150-165
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Agriculture, GDP, Structural VAR, Directed Acyclic Graphs

References

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Ouahiba Elalaoui, Khalil Allali, Aziz Fadlaoui, Nassreddine Maatala, Abdelouafi Ibrahimy. (2022). Dynamic Assessment of Agriculture and Economic Growth Nexus in Morocco: Evidence from Structural VAR and Directed Acyclic Graphs. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 10(4), 150-165. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20221004.11

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ACS Style

Ouahiba Elalaoui; Khalil Allali; Aziz Fadlaoui; Nassreddine Maatala; Abdelouafi Ibrahimy. Dynamic Assessment of Agriculture and Economic Growth Nexus in Morocco: Evidence from Structural VAR and Directed Acyclic Graphs. Int. J. Econ. Finance Manag. Sci. 2022, 10(4), 150-165. doi: 10.11648/j.ijefm.20221004.11

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AMA Style

Ouahiba Elalaoui, Khalil Allali, Aziz Fadlaoui, Nassreddine Maatala, Abdelouafi Ibrahimy. Dynamic Assessment of Agriculture and Economic Growth Nexus in Morocco: Evidence from Structural VAR and Directed Acyclic Graphs. Int J Econ Finance Manag Sci. 2022;10(4):150-165. doi: 10.11648/j.ijefm.20221004.11

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@article{10.11648/j.ijefm.20221004.11,
  author = {Ouahiba Elalaoui and Khalil Allali and Aziz Fadlaoui and Nassreddine Maatala and Abdelouafi Ibrahimy},
  title = {Dynamic Assessment of Agriculture and Economic Growth Nexus in Morocco: Evidence from Structural VAR and Directed Acyclic Graphs},
  journal = {International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences},
  volume = {10},
  number = {4},
  pages = {150-165},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijefm.20221004.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20221004.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijefm.20221004.11},
  abstract = {The recurrence of international crises and their negative impact on the economy and household food security has stimulated a strong revival of interest in the role of the agricultural sector and its relationship with the national economy. Recently, a macro-econometric model has shown a well-established bidirectional causality nexus between the agricultural sector and the Moroccan economy. However, the assessment of the magnitude of effects in both directions and their historical evolution are crucial topics that have not yet been explored. The current study empirically examines the dynamic interrelationships between Moroccan agriculture and GDP using the structural VAR model. The data set consists of the annual macroeconomic time series covering the period 1980-2019, namely: GDP per capita, agricultural GDP, investment rate, money supply and trade openness. This paper exploits recent advances in artificial intelligence to determine the over-identifying restrictions, through Directed Acyclic Graphs. Impulse response functions reveal that the Moroccan economy is very sensitive to agricultural shocks compared to shocks due to other endogenous variables, meanwhile the agricultural sector is very reactive to its shocks. The results from the variance decomposition show that the agricultural shocks are the most important driver of economic growth fluctuations and account for almost 69% of the forecast error variance for the first year. The share of GDP shocks in the variance of the forecast error of agricultural GDP does not exceed 7% for a ten-year horizon, while agricultural shocks dominate the decomposition variance profile and never fall below the 74% threshold. These results highlight the predominance of the Agriculture-Led Growth hypothesis in comparison with the Growth-Led Agriculture hypothesis. The findings resulting from the historical decomposition reconfirm the historical dependence between the national economy and agriculture. This sector sometimes acts as a shock absorber, counteracting the poor performance of other sectors of the economy. Under the Structural VAR model, the historical analysis illustrates that the national economy is increasingly resilient to agricultural shocks because of the improved resilience of Moroccan agriculture to climate shocks. Although the impact of agriculture is historically prominent, the magnitude of its impact has significantly reduced by 22% between 1982-1999 and 2000-2019. Given the strong potential of the agricultural sector to promote economic growth, policymakers should continue to create favorable conditions to support the development of the sector.},
 year = {2022}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Dynamic Assessment of Agriculture and Economic Growth Nexus in Morocco: Evidence from Structural VAR and Directed Acyclic Graphs
AU  - Ouahiba Elalaoui
AU  - Khalil Allali
AU  - Aziz Fadlaoui
AU  - Nassreddine Maatala
AU  - Abdelouafi Ibrahimy
Y1  - 2022/07/05
PY  - 2022
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20221004.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijefm.20221004.11
T2  - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences
JF  - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences
JO  - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences
SP  - 150
EP  - 165
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2326-9561
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20221004.11
AB  - The recurrence of international crises and their negative impact on the economy and household food security has stimulated a strong revival of interest in the role of the agricultural sector and its relationship with the national economy. Recently, a macro-econometric model has shown a well-established bidirectional causality nexus between the agricultural sector and the Moroccan economy. However, the assessment of the magnitude of effects in both directions and their historical evolution are crucial topics that have not yet been explored. The current study empirically examines the dynamic interrelationships between Moroccan agriculture and GDP using the structural VAR model. The data set consists of the annual macroeconomic time series covering the period 1980-2019, namely: GDP per capita, agricultural GDP, investment rate, money supply and trade openness. This paper exploits recent advances in artificial intelligence to determine the over-identifying restrictions, through Directed Acyclic Graphs. Impulse response functions reveal that the Moroccan economy is very sensitive to agricultural shocks compared to shocks due to other endogenous variables, meanwhile the agricultural sector is very reactive to its shocks. The results from the variance decomposition show that the agricultural shocks are the most important driver of economic growth fluctuations and account for almost 69% of the forecast error variance for the first year. The share of GDP shocks in the variance of the forecast error of agricultural GDP does not exceed 7% for a ten-year horizon, while agricultural shocks dominate the decomposition variance profile and never fall below the 74% threshold. These results highlight the predominance of the Agriculture-Led Growth hypothesis in comparison with the Growth-Led Agriculture hypothesis. The findings resulting from the historical decomposition reconfirm the historical dependence between the national economy and agriculture. This sector sometimes acts as a shock absorber, counteracting the poor performance of other sectors of the economy. Under the Structural VAR model, the historical analysis illustrates that the national economy is increasingly resilient to agricultural shocks because of the improved resilience of Moroccan agriculture to climate shocks. Although the impact of agriculture is historically prominent, the magnitude of its impact has significantly reduced by 22% between 1982-1999 and 2000-2019. Given the strong potential of the agricultural sector to promote economic growth, policymakers should continue to create favorable conditions to support the development of the sector.
VL  - 10
IS  - 4
ER  -

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Author Information

Ouahiba Elalaoui

Department of Human Sciences, Hassan II Institute of Agronomy & Veterinary Medicine, Rabat, Morocco
Khalil Allali

Department of Rural Economy, National School of Agriculture, Meknes, Morocco
Aziz Fadlaoui

Rural Economics and Sociology Department, National Institute of Agricultural Research, Meknes, Morocco
Nassreddine Maatala

Department of Human Sciences, Hassan II Institute of Agronomy & Veterinary Medicine, Rabat, Morocco
Abdelouafi Ibrahimy

Department of Rural Economy, National School of Agriculture, Meknes, Morocco

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APA Style

Ouahiba Elalaoui, Khalil Allali, Aziz Fadlaoui, Nassreddine Maatala, Abdelouafi Ibrahimy. (2022). Dynamic Assessment of Agriculture and Economic Growth Nexus in Morocco: Evidence from Structural VAR and Directed Acyclic Graphs. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 10(4), 150-165. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20221004.11

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ACS Style

Ouahiba Elalaoui; Khalil Allali; Aziz Fadlaoui; Nassreddine Maatala; Abdelouafi Ibrahimy. Dynamic Assessment of Agriculture and Economic Growth Nexus in Morocco: Evidence from Structural VAR and Directed Acyclic Graphs. Int. J. Econ. Finance Manag. Sci. 2022, 10(4), 150-165. doi: 10.11648/j.ijefm.20221004.11

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AMA Style

Ouahiba Elalaoui, Khalil Allali, Aziz Fadlaoui, Nassreddine Maatala, Abdelouafi Ibrahimy. Dynamic Assessment of Agriculture and Economic Growth Nexus in Morocco: Evidence from Structural VAR and Directed Acyclic Graphs. Int J Econ Finance Manag Sci. 2022;10(4):150-165. doi: 10.11648/j.ijefm.20221004.11

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijefm.20221004.11,
  author = {Ouahiba Elalaoui and Khalil Allali and Aziz Fadlaoui and Nassreddine Maatala and Abdelouafi Ibrahimy},
  title = {Dynamic Assessment of Agriculture and Economic Growth Nexus in Morocco: Evidence from Structural VAR and Directed Acyclic Graphs},
  journal = {International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences},
  volume = {10},
  number = {4},
  pages = {150-165},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijefm.20221004.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20221004.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijefm.20221004.11},
  abstract = {The recurrence of international crises and their negative impact on the economy and household food security has stimulated a strong revival of interest in the role of the agricultural sector and its relationship with the national economy. Recently, a macro-econometric model has shown a well-established bidirectional causality nexus between the agricultural sector and the Moroccan economy. However, the assessment of the magnitude of effects in both directions and their historical evolution are crucial topics that have not yet been explored. The current study empirically examines the dynamic interrelationships between Moroccan agriculture and GDP using the structural VAR model. The data set consists of the annual macroeconomic time series covering the period 1980-2019, namely: GDP per capita, agricultural GDP, investment rate, money supply and trade openness. This paper exploits recent advances in artificial intelligence to determine the over-identifying restrictions, through Directed Acyclic Graphs. Impulse response functions reveal that the Moroccan economy is very sensitive to agricultural shocks compared to shocks due to other endogenous variables, meanwhile the agricultural sector is very reactive to its shocks. The results from the variance decomposition show that the agricultural shocks are the most important driver of economic growth fluctuations and account for almost 69% of the forecast error variance for the first year. The share of GDP shocks in the variance of the forecast error of agricultural GDP does not exceed 7% for a ten-year horizon, while agricultural shocks dominate the decomposition variance profile and never fall below the 74% threshold. These results highlight the predominance of the Agriculture-Led Growth hypothesis in comparison with the Growth-Led Agriculture hypothesis. The findings resulting from the historical decomposition reconfirm the historical dependence between the national economy and agriculture. This sector sometimes acts as a shock absorber, counteracting the poor performance of other sectors of the economy. Under the Structural VAR model, the historical analysis illustrates that the national economy is increasingly resilient to agricultural shocks because of the improved resilience of Moroccan agriculture to climate shocks. Although the impact of agriculture is historically prominent, the magnitude of its impact has significantly reduced by 22% between 1982-1999 and 2000-2019. Given the strong potential of the agricultural sector to promote economic growth, policymakers should continue to create favorable conditions to support the development of the sector.},
 year = {2022}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Dynamic Assessment of Agriculture and Economic Growth Nexus in Morocco: Evidence from Structural VAR and Directed Acyclic Graphs
AU  - Ouahiba Elalaoui
AU  - Khalil Allali
AU  - Aziz Fadlaoui
AU  - Nassreddine Maatala
AU  - Abdelouafi Ibrahimy
Y1  - 2022/07/05
PY  - 2022
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20221004.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijefm.20221004.11
T2  - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences
JF  - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences
JO  - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences
SP  - 150
EP  - 165
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2326-9561
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20221004.11
AB  - The recurrence of international crises and their negative impact on the economy and household food security has stimulated a strong revival of interest in the role of the agricultural sector and its relationship with the national economy. Recently, a macro-econometric model has shown a well-established bidirectional causality nexus between the agricultural sector and the Moroccan economy. However, the assessment of the magnitude of effects in both directions and their historical evolution are crucial topics that have not yet been explored. The current study empirically examines the dynamic interrelationships between Moroccan agriculture and GDP using the structural VAR model. The data set consists of the annual macroeconomic time series covering the period 1980-2019, namely: GDP per capita, agricultural GDP, investment rate, money supply and trade openness. This paper exploits recent advances in artificial intelligence to determine the over-identifying restrictions, through Directed Acyclic Graphs. Impulse response functions reveal that the Moroccan economy is very sensitive to agricultural shocks compared to shocks due to other endogenous variables, meanwhile the agricultural sector is very reactive to its shocks. The results from the variance decomposition show that the agricultural shocks are the most important driver of economic growth fluctuations and account for almost 69% of the forecast error variance for the first year. The share of GDP shocks in the variance of the forecast error of agricultural GDP does not exceed 7% for a ten-year horizon, while agricultural shocks dominate the decomposition variance profile and never fall below the 74% threshold. These results highlight the predominance of the Agriculture-Led Growth hypothesis in comparison with the Growth-Led Agriculture hypothesis. The findings resulting from the historical decomposition reconfirm the historical dependence between the national economy and agriculture. This sector sometimes acts as a shock absorber, counteracting the poor performance of other sectors of the economy. Under the Structural VAR model, the historical analysis illustrates that the national economy is increasingly resilient to agricultural shocks because of the improved resilience of Moroccan agriculture to climate shocks. Although the impact of agriculture is historically prominent, the magnitude of its impact has significantly reduced by 22% between 1982-1999 and 2000-2019. Given the strong potential of the agricultural sector to promote economic growth, policymakers should continue to create favorable conditions to support the development of the sector.
VL  - 10
IS  - 4
ER  -

Copy | Download