Threshold Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Economic Growth

Yan Du; Qian Wu

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijber.20190803.15

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Threshold Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Economic Growth

Yan Du, Qian Wu

Published in International Journal of Business and Economics Research (Volume 8, Issue 3)

Received: 16 April 2019 Accepted: 2 June 2019 Published: 17 June 2019

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Abstract

Based on the framework of neoclassical growth theory, this paper constructs a time series threshold co-integration model to test and analyze the impact of ratio of the tertiary and the secondary industry, the tertiary and the primary industry, the productive service industry and the service industry on economic growth during 1979-2015 in China. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) there is a threshold effect of industrial structure change on economic growth. The time node of the threshold effect is about 2009-2010. (2) threshold effect of industrial structure on economic growth is mainly achieved by changing the output efficiency of labor factors. After 2009-2010, the labor output efficiency declines significantly, while the capital output efficiency remains basically unchanged. The conclusions of the study show that the premature development of service industry and the excessive non-productive tendency of service industry development are very detrimental to the sustained growth of China's economy in the middle and late stages of industrialization. This paper provides some policy suggestions, such as continuing to promote the mechanization and large-scale development of the agricultural industry, deepening the development of manufacturing industry, and focusing on the development of productive services, to maintain the high-speed economic growth of China.

Published in	International Journal of Business and Economics Research (Volume 8, Issue 3)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijber.20190803.15
Page(s)	118-124
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2019. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Industrial Structural Change, Factor Efficiency, Economic Growth, Service Leading Tendency of Industrial Structure, Non-productive Development Tendency of Service Industry

References

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Yan Du, Qian Wu. (2019). Threshold Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Economic Growth. International Journal of Business and Economics Research, 8(3), 118-124. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20190803.15

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ACS Style

Yan Du; Qian Wu. Threshold Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Economic Growth. Int. J. Bus. Econ. Res. 2019, 8(3), 118-124. doi: 10.11648/j.ijber.20190803.15

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AMA Style

Yan Du, Qian Wu. Threshold Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Economic Growth. Int J Bus Econ Res. 2019;8(3):118-124. doi: 10.11648/j.ijber.20190803.15

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@article{10.11648/j.ijber.20190803.15,
  author = {Yan Du and Qian Wu},
  title = {Threshold Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Economic Growth},
  journal = {International Journal of Business and Economics Research},
  volume = {8},
  number = {3},
  pages = {118-124},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijber.20190803.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20190803.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijber.20190803.15},
  abstract = {Based on the framework of neoclassical growth theory, this paper constructs a time series threshold co-integration model to test and analyze the impact of ratio of the tertiary and the secondary industry, the tertiary and the primary industry, the productive service industry and the service industry on economic growth during 1979-2015 in China. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) there is a threshold effect of industrial structure change on economic growth. The time node of the threshold effect is about 2009-2010. (2) threshold effect of industrial structure on economic growth is mainly achieved by changing the output efficiency of labor factors. After 2009-2010, the labor output efficiency declines significantly, while the capital output efficiency remains basically unchanged. The conclusions of the study show that the premature development of service industry and the excessive non-productive tendency of service industry development are very detrimental to the sustained growth of China's economy in the middle and late stages of industrialization. This paper provides some policy suggestions, such as continuing to promote the mechanization and large-scale development of the agricultural industry, deepening the development of manufacturing industry, and focusing on the development of productive services, to maintain the high-speed economic growth of China.},
 year = {2019}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Threshold Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Economic Growth
AU  - Yan Du
AU  - Qian Wu
Y1  - 2019/06/17
PY  - 2019
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20190803.15
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijber.20190803.15
T2  - International Journal of Business and Economics Research
JF  - International Journal of Business and Economics Research
JO  - International Journal of Business and Economics Research
SP  - 118
EP  - 124
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-756X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20190803.15
AB  - Based on the framework of neoclassical growth theory, this paper constructs a time series threshold co-integration model to test and analyze the impact of ratio of the tertiary and the secondary industry, the tertiary and the primary industry, the productive service industry and the service industry on economic growth during 1979-2015 in China. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) there is a threshold effect of industrial structure change on economic growth. The time node of the threshold effect is about 2009-2010. (2) threshold effect of industrial structure on economic growth is mainly achieved by changing the output efficiency of labor factors. After 2009-2010, the labor output efficiency declines significantly, while the capital output efficiency remains basically unchanged. The conclusions of the study show that the premature development of service industry and the excessive non-productive tendency of service industry development are very detrimental to the sustained growth of China's economy in the middle and late stages of industrialization. This paper provides some policy suggestions, such as continuing to promote the mechanization and large-scale development of the agricultural industry, deepening the development of manufacturing industry, and focusing on the development of productive services, to maintain the high-speed economic growth of China.
VL  - 8
IS  - 3
ER  -

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Author Information

Yan Du

Institute of Finance, Hunan University of Commerce, Changsha, China
Qian Wu

Institute of Economy and Trade, Hunan University of Commerce, Changsha, China

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APA Style

Yan Du, Qian Wu. (2019). Threshold Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Economic Growth. International Journal of Business and Economics Research, 8(3), 118-124. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20190803.15

Copy | Download

ACS Style

Yan Du; Qian Wu. Threshold Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Economic Growth. Int. J. Bus. Econ. Res. 2019, 8(3), 118-124. doi: 10.11648/j.ijber.20190803.15

Copy | Download

AMA Style

Yan Du, Qian Wu. Threshold Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Economic Growth. Int J Bus Econ Res. 2019;8(3):118-124. doi: 10.11648/j.ijber.20190803.15

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijber.20190803.15,
  author = {Yan Du and Qian Wu},
  title = {Threshold Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Economic Growth},
  journal = {International Journal of Business and Economics Research},
  volume = {8},
  number = {3},
  pages = {118-124},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijber.20190803.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20190803.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijber.20190803.15},
  abstract = {Based on the framework of neoclassical growth theory, this paper constructs a time series threshold co-integration model to test and analyze the impact of ratio of the tertiary and the secondary industry, the tertiary and the primary industry, the productive service industry and the service industry on economic growth during 1979-2015 in China. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) there is a threshold effect of industrial structure change on economic growth. The time node of the threshold effect is about 2009-2010. (2) threshold effect of industrial structure on economic growth is mainly achieved by changing the output efficiency of labor factors. After 2009-2010, the labor output efficiency declines significantly, while the capital output efficiency remains basically unchanged. The conclusions of the study show that the premature development of service industry and the excessive non-productive tendency of service industry development are very detrimental to the sustained growth of China's economy in the middle and late stages of industrialization. This paper provides some policy suggestions, such as continuing to promote the mechanization and large-scale development of the agricultural industry, deepening the development of manufacturing industry, and focusing on the development of productive services, to maintain the high-speed economic growth of China.},
 year = {2019}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Threshold Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Economic Growth
AU  - Yan Du
AU  - Qian Wu
Y1  - 2019/06/17
PY  - 2019
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20190803.15
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijber.20190803.15
T2  - International Journal of Business and Economics Research
JF  - International Journal of Business and Economics Research
JO  - International Journal of Business and Economics Research
SP  - 118
EP  - 124
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-756X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20190803.15
AB  - Based on the framework of neoclassical growth theory, this paper constructs a time series threshold co-integration model to test and analyze the impact of ratio of the tertiary and the secondary industry, the tertiary and the primary industry, the productive service industry and the service industry on economic growth during 1979-2015 in China. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) there is a threshold effect of industrial structure change on economic growth. The time node of the threshold effect is about 2009-2010. (2) threshold effect of industrial structure on economic growth is mainly achieved by changing the output efficiency of labor factors. After 2009-2010, the labor output efficiency declines significantly, while the capital output efficiency remains basically unchanged. The conclusions of the study show that the premature development of service industry and the excessive non-productive tendency of service industry development are very detrimental to the sustained growth of China's economy in the middle and late stages of industrialization. This paper provides some policy suggestions, such as continuing to promote the mechanization and large-scale development of the agricultural industry, deepening the development of manufacturing industry, and focusing on the development of productive services, to maintain the high-speed economic growth of China.
VL  - 8
IS  - 3
ER  -

Copy | Download