An Improvement the Accuracy of Grey Forecasting Model for Cargo Throughput in International Commercial Ports of Kaohsiung

Chia- Nan Wang; Van- Thanh Phan

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijber.20140301.11

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An Improvement the Accuracy of Grey Forecasting Model for Cargo Throughput in International Commercial Ports of Kaohsiung

Chia- Nan Wang, Van- Thanh Phan

Published in International Journal of Business and Economics Research (Volume 3, Issue 1)

Received: 7 December 2013 Published: 10 January 2014

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Abstract

Based on the grey theory, grey prediction models, which are GM (1, 1), have been adopted to predict the cargo throughput and modified GM (1, 1) using Fourier series called “FRMGM (1, 1)” for improving the accuracy of forecast model. A forecasting the cargo throughput in the international commercial port of Kaohsiung from 2013-2015 has also been conducted based on the previous data to serve as a reference for port management in making development plans and construction as well as orienting development in the future. All data source is collected from the Ministry of Transportation and Communication of Taiwan. Through simulation results, this study showed that both of two models are suitable but the FRMGM (1, 1) is the excellent model in forecast with average accuracy of predict is 100%. Hence, the FRMGM (1, 1) model is strongly suggested for forecast the cargo throughput in the port of Kaohsiung.

Published in	International Journal of Business and Economics Research (Volume 3, Issue 1)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijber.20140301.11
Page(s)	1-5
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2014. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Cargo Throughput, Grey forecasting model, International Commercial Ports, Kaohsiung

References

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APA Style

Chia- Nan Wang, Van- Thanh Phan. (2014). An Improvement the Accuracy of Grey Forecasting Model for Cargo Throughput in International Commercial Ports of Kaohsiung. International Journal of Business and Economics Research, 3(1), 1-5. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20140301.11

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ACS Style

Chia- Nan Wang; Van- Thanh Phan. An Improvement the Accuracy of Grey Forecasting Model for Cargo Throughput in International Commercial Ports of Kaohsiung. Int. J. Bus. Econ. Res. 2014, 3(1), 1-5. doi: 10.11648/j.ijber.20140301.11

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AMA Style

Chia- Nan Wang, Van- Thanh Phan. An Improvement the Accuracy of Grey Forecasting Model for Cargo Throughput in International Commercial Ports of Kaohsiung. Int J Bus Econ Res. 2014;3(1):1-5. doi: 10.11648/j.ijber.20140301.11

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@article{10.11648/j.ijber.20140301.11,
  author = {Chia- Nan Wang and Van- Thanh Phan},
  title = {An Improvement the Accuracy of Grey Forecasting Model for Cargo Throughput in International Commercial Ports of Kaohsiung},
  journal = {International Journal of Business and Economics Research},
  volume = {3},
  number = {1},
  pages = {1-5},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijber.20140301.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20140301.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijber.20140301.11},
  abstract = {Based on the grey theory, grey prediction models, which are GM (1, 1), have been adopted to predict the cargo throughput and modified GM (1, 1) using Fourier series called “FRMGM (1, 1)” for improving the accuracy of forecast model. A forecasting the cargo throughput in the international commercial port of Kaohsiung from 2013-2015 has also been conducted based on the previous data to serve as a reference for port management in making development plans and construction as well as orienting development in the future. All data source is collected from the Ministry of Transportation and Communication of Taiwan. Through simulation results, this study showed that both of two models are suitable but the FRMGM (1, 1) is the excellent model in forecast with average accuracy of predict is 100%. Hence, the FRMGM (1, 1) model is strongly suggested for forecast the cargo throughput in the port of Kaohsiung.},
 year = {2014}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - An Improvement the Accuracy of Grey Forecasting Model for Cargo Throughput in International Commercial Ports of Kaohsiung
AU  - Chia- Nan Wang
AU  - Van- Thanh Phan
Y1  - 2014/01/10
PY  - 2014
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20140301.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijber.20140301.11
T2  - International Journal of Business and Economics Research
JF  - International Journal of Business and Economics Research
JO  - International Journal of Business and Economics Research
SP  - 1
EP  - 5
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-756X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20140301.11
AB  - Based on the grey theory, grey prediction models, which are GM (1, 1), have been adopted to predict the cargo throughput and modified GM (1, 1) using Fourier series called “FRMGM (1, 1)” for improving the accuracy of forecast model. A forecasting the cargo throughput in the international commercial port of Kaohsiung from 2013-2015 has also been conducted based on the previous data to serve as a reference for port management in making development plans and construction as well as orienting development in the future. All data source is collected from the Ministry of Transportation and Communication of Taiwan. Through simulation results, this study showed that both of two models are suitable but the FRMGM (1, 1) is the excellent model in forecast with average accuracy of predict is 100%. Hence, the FRMGM (1, 1) model is strongly suggested for forecast the cargo throughput in the port of Kaohsiung.
VL  - 3
IS  - 1
ER  -

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Author Information

Chia- Nan Wang

Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences , 415 Chien- Kung Road, Kaohsiung city, Taiwan
Van- Thanh Phan

Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences , 415 Chien- Kung Road, Kaohsiung city, Taiwan

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APA Style

Chia- Nan Wang, Van- Thanh Phan. (2014). An Improvement the Accuracy of Grey Forecasting Model for Cargo Throughput in International Commercial Ports of Kaohsiung. International Journal of Business and Economics Research, 3(1), 1-5. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20140301.11

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ACS Style

Chia- Nan Wang; Van- Thanh Phan. An Improvement the Accuracy of Grey Forecasting Model for Cargo Throughput in International Commercial Ports of Kaohsiung. Int. J. Bus. Econ. Res. 2014, 3(1), 1-5. doi: 10.11648/j.ijber.20140301.11

Copy | Download

AMA Style

Chia- Nan Wang, Van- Thanh Phan. An Improvement the Accuracy of Grey Forecasting Model for Cargo Throughput in International Commercial Ports of Kaohsiung. Int J Bus Econ Res. 2014;3(1):1-5. doi: 10.11648/j.ijber.20140301.11

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijber.20140301.11,
  author = {Chia- Nan Wang and Van- Thanh Phan},
  title = {An Improvement the Accuracy of Grey Forecasting Model for Cargo Throughput in International Commercial Ports of Kaohsiung},
  journal = {International Journal of Business and Economics Research},
  volume = {3},
  number = {1},
  pages = {1-5},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijber.20140301.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20140301.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijber.20140301.11},
  abstract = {Based on the grey theory, grey prediction models, which are GM (1, 1), have been adopted to predict the cargo throughput and modified GM (1, 1) using Fourier series called “FRMGM (1, 1)” for improving the accuracy of forecast model. A forecasting the cargo throughput in the international commercial port of Kaohsiung from 2013-2015 has also been conducted based on the previous data to serve as a reference for port management in making development plans and construction as well as orienting development in the future. All data source is collected from the Ministry of Transportation and Communication of Taiwan. Through simulation results, this study showed that both of two models are suitable but the FRMGM (1, 1) is the excellent model in forecast with average accuracy of predict is 100%. Hence, the FRMGM (1, 1) model is strongly suggested for forecast the cargo throughput in the port of Kaohsiung.},
 year = {2014}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - An Improvement the Accuracy of Grey Forecasting Model for Cargo Throughput in International Commercial Ports of Kaohsiung
AU  - Chia- Nan Wang
AU  - Van- Thanh Phan
Y1  - 2014/01/10
PY  - 2014
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20140301.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijber.20140301.11
T2  - International Journal of Business and Economics Research
JF  - International Journal of Business and Economics Research
JO  - International Journal of Business and Economics Research
SP  - 1
EP  - 5
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-756X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20140301.11
AB  - Based on the grey theory, grey prediction models, which are GM (1, 1), have been adopted to predict the cargo throughput and modified GM (1, 1) using Fourier series called “FRMGM (1, 1)” for improving the accuracy of forecast model. A forecasting the cargo throughput in the international commercial port of Kaohsiung from 2013-2015 has also been conducted based on the previous data to serve as a reference for port management in making development plans and construction as well as orienting development in the future. All data source is collected from the Ministry of Transportation and Communication of Taiwan. Through simulation results, this study showed that both of two models are suitable but the FRMGM (1, 1) is the excellent model in forecast with average accuracy of predict is 100%. Hence, the FRMGM (1, 1) model is strongly suggested for forecast the cargo throughput in the port of Kaohsiung.
VL  - 3
IS  - 1
ER  -

Copy | Download