Driving Forces Analysis of Power Consumption in Beijing Based on LMDI Decomposition Method and LEAP Model

Dong Jun; Palidan Ainiwaer; Liu Yao

doi:doi:10.11648/j.epes.20200901.12

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Driving Forces Analysis of Power Consumption in Beijing Based on LMDI Decomposition Method and LEAP Model

Dong Jun, Palidan Ainiwaer, Liu Yao

Published in American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems (Volume 9, Issue 1)

Received: 20 April 2020 Accepted: 8 May 2020 Published: 14 May 2020

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Abstract

With increasing pressure on resources and environment, sustainable development is becoming more and more important. As the largest energy consumer in the world, China needs to take measures to achieve energy transformation more urgently both from supply and demand side, which is of great significance for sustainable development and achieving carbon emissions target. In recent years, the capital city Beijing has also made great efforts to promote the replacement of electric energy in residential heating, manufacturing, transportation, power supply and consumption. In order to explore driving forces of total power consumption in Beijing`s final demand sectors, this paper decomposes the factors into industrial electricity substitution effect, industrial energy intensity effect, industrial structure effect, economic scale effect, population structure effect, residential electricity substitution effect, residential energy intensity effect and population size effect based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method. The decomposition results show that the industrial electricity substitution effect made the largest contribution to increase power consumption in Beijing’s final energy consumption sector, followed by economic scale effect, residential energy intensity effect, population scale effect and residential electricity substitution effect, and other`s effect does the opposite. Finally, seven different scenarios are set up to forecast the future power consumption of Beijing`s final sectors based on the long-term energy alternative planning model (LEAP), which reveals the impact of energy efficiency improvement and electricity substitution polices on electricity consumption in Beijing`s final energy consumption sectors.

Published in	American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems (Volume 9, Issue 1)
DOI	10.11648/j.epes.20200901.12
Page(s)	14-25
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Driving Forces, Electricity Consumption, LMDI Decomposition Method, LEAP Scenario Analysis, Electricity Substitution

References

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APA Style

Dong Jun, Palidan Ainiwaer, Liu Yao. (2020). Driving Forces Analysis of Power Consumption in Beijing Based on LMDI Decomposition Method and LEAP Model. American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, 9(1), 14-25. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.epes.20200901.12

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ACS Style

Dong Jun; Palidan Ainiwaer; Liu Yao. Driving Forces Analysis of Power Consumption in Beijing Based on LMDI Decomposition Method and LEAP Model. Am. J. Electr. Power Energy Syst. 2020, 9(1), 14-25. doi: 10.11648/j.epes.20200901.12

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AMA Style

Dong Jun, Palidan Ainiwaer, Liu Yao. Driving Forces Analysis of Power Consumption in Beijing Based on LMDI Decomposition Method and LEAP Model. Am J Electr Power Energy Syst. 2020;9(1):14-25. doi: 10.11648/j.epes.20200901.12

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@article{10.11648/j.epes.20200901.12,
  author = {Dong Jun and Palidan Ainiwaer and Liu Yao},
  title = {Driving Forces Analysis of Power Consumption in Beijing Based on LMDI Decomposition Method and LEAP Model},
  journal = {American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems},
  volume = {9},
  number = {1},
  pages = {14-25},
  doi = {10.11648/j.epes.20200901.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.epes.20200901.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.epes.20200901.12},
  abstract = {With increasing pressure on resources and environment, sustainable development is becoming more and more important. As the largest energy consumer in the world, China needs to take measures to achieve energy transformation more urgently both from supply and demand side, which is of great significance for sustainable development and achieving carbon emissions target. In recent years, the capital city Beijing has also made great efforts to promote the replacement of electric energy in residential heating, manufacturing, transportation, power supply and consumption. In order to explore driving forces of total power consumption in Beijing`s final demand sectors, this paper decomposes the factors into industrial electricity substitution effect, industrial energy intensity effect, industrial structure effect, economic scale effect, population structure effect, residential electricity substitution effect, residential energy intensity effect and population size effect based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method. The decomposition results show that the industrial electricity substitution effect made the largest contribution to increase power consumption in Beijing’s final energy consumption sector, followed by economic scale effect, residential energy intensity effect, population scale effect and residential electricity substitution effect, and other`s effect does the opposite. Finally, seven different scenarios are set up to forecast the future power consumption of Beijing`s final sectors based on the long-term energy alternative planning model (LEAP), which reveals the impact of energy efficiency improvement and electricity substitution polices on electricity consumption in Beijing`s final energy consumption sectors.},
 year = {2020}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Driving Forces Analysis of Power Consumption in Beijing Based on LMDI Decomposition Method and LEAP Model
AU  - Dong Jun
AU  - Palidan Ainiwaer
AU  - Liu Yao
Y1  - 2020/05/14
PY  - 2020
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.epes.20200901.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.epes.20200901.12
T2  - American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
JF  - American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
JO  - American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
SP  - 14
EP  - 25
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2326-9200
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.epes.20200901.12
AB  - With increasing pressure on resources and environment, sustainable development is becoming more and more important. As the largest energy consumer in the world, China needs to take measures to achieve energy transformation more urgently both from supply and demand side, which is of great significance for sustainable development and achieving carbon emissions target. In recent years, the capital city Beijing has also made great efforts to promote the replacement of electric energy in residential heating, manufacturing, transportation, power supply and consumption. In order to explore driving forces of total power consumption in Beijing`s final demand sectors, this paper decomposes the factors into industrial electricity substitution effect, industrial energy intensity effect, industrial structure effect, economic scale effect, population structure effect, residential electricity substitution effect, residential energy intensity effect and population size effect based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method. The decomposition results show that the industrial electricity substitution effect made the largest contribution to increase power consumption in Beijing’s final energy consumption sector, followed by economic scale effect, residential energy intensity effect, population scale effect and residential electricity substitution effect, and other`s effect does the opposite. Finally, seven different scenarios are set up to forecast the future power consumption of Beijing`s final sectors based on the long-term energy alternative planning model (LEAP), which reveals the impact of energy efficiency improvement and electricity substitution polices on electricity consumption in Beijing`s final energy consumption sectors.
VL  - 9
IS  - 1
ER  -

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Author Information

Dong Jun

School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China
Palidan Ainiwaer

School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China
Liu Yao

School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China

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APA Style

Dong Jun, Palidan Ainiwaer, Liu Yao. (2020). Driving Forces Analysis of Power Consumption in Beijing Based on LMDI Decomposition Method and LEAP Model. American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, 9(1), 14-25. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.epes.20200901.12

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ACS Style

Dong Jun; Palidan Ainiwaer; Liu Yao. Driving Forces Analysis of Power Consumption in Beijing Based on LMDI Decomposition Method and LEAP Model. Am. J. Electr. Power Energy Syst. 2020, 9(1), 14-25. doi: 10.11648/j.epes.20200901.12

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AMA Style

Dong Jun, Palidan Ainiwaer, Liu Yao. Driving Forces Analysis of Power Consumption in Beijing Based on LMDI Decomposition Method and LEAP Model. Am J Electr Power Energy Syst. 2020;9(1):14-25. doi: 10.11648/j.epes.20200901.12

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.epes.20200901.12,
  author = {Dong Jun and Palidan Ainiwaer and Liu Yao},
  title = {Driving Forces Analysis of Power Consumption in Beijing Based on LMDI Decomposition Method and LEAP Model},
  journal = {American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems},
  volume = {9},
  number = {1},
  pages = {14-25},
  doi = {10.11648/j.epes.20200901.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.epes.20200901.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.epes.20200901.12},
  abstract = {With increasing pressure on resources and environment, sustainable development is becoming more and more important. As the largest energy consumer in the world, China needs to take measures to achieve energy transformation more urgently both from supply and demand side, which is of great significance for sustainable development and achieving carbon emissions target. In recent years, the capital city Beijing has also made great efforts to promote the replacement of electric energy in residential heating, manufacturing, transportation, power supply and consumption. In order to explore driving forces of total power consumption in Beijing`s final demand sectors, this paper decomposes the factors into industrial electricity substitution effect, industrial energy intensity effect, industrial structure effect, economic scale effect, population structure effect, residential electricity substitution effect, residential energy intensity effect and population size effect based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method. The decomposition results show that the industrial electricity substitution effect made the largest contribution to increase power consumption in Beijing’s final energy consumption sector, followed by economic scale effect, residential energy intensity effect, population scale effect and residential electricity substitution effect, and other`s effect does the opposite. Finally, seven different scenarios are set up to forecast the future power consumption of Beijing`s final sectors based on the long-term energy alternative planning model (LEAP), which reveals the impact of energy efficiency improvement and electricity substitution polices on electricity consumption in Beijing`s final energy consumption sectors.},
 year = {2020}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Driving Forces Analysis of Power Consumption in Beijing Based on LMDI Decomposition Method and LEAP Model
AU  - Dong Jun
AU  - Palidan Ainiwaer
AU  - Liu Yao
Y1  - 2020/05/14
PY  - 2020
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.epes.20200901.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.epes.20200901.12
T2  - American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
JF  - American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
JO  - American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
SP  - 14
EP  - 25
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2326-9200
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.epes.20200901.12
AB  - With increasing pressure on resources and environment, sustainable development is becoming more and more important. As the largest energy consumer in the world, China needs to take measures to achieve energy transformation more urgently both from supply and demand side, which is of great significance for sustainable development and achieving carbon emissions target. In recent years, the capital city Beijing has also made great efforts to promote the replacement of electric energy in residential heating, manufacturing, transportation, power supply and consumption. In order to explore driving forces of total power consumption in Beijing`s final demand sectors, this paper decomposes the factors into industrial electricity substitution effect, industrial energy intensity effect, industrial structure effect, economic scale effect, population structure effect, residential electricity substitution effect, residential energy intensity effect and population size effect based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method. The decomposition results show that the industrial electricity substitution effect made the largest contribution to increase power consumption in Beijing’s final energy consumption sector, followed by economic scale effect, residential energy intensity effect, population scale effect and residential electricity substitution effect, and other`s effect does the opposite. Finally, seven different scenarios are set up to forecast the future power consumption of Beijing`s final sectors based on the long-term energy alternative planning model (LEAP), which reveals the impact of energy efficiency improvement and electricity substitution polices on electricity consumption in Beijing`s final energy consumption sectors.
VL  - 9
IS  - 1
ER  -

Copy | Download