Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on EMD-Grey Model

Dong Jun; Wang Pei; Dou Xihao

doi:doi:10.11648/j.epes.20180704.11

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Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on EMD-Grey Model

Dong Jun, Wang Pei, Dou Xihao

Published in American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems (Volume 7, Issue 4)

Received: 30 July 2018 Accepted: 14 August 2018 Published: 4 September 2018

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Abstract

With the issuance of "electricity reform No. 9 document" in 2015, a new round of power system reform in China has been continuously pushed forward. With the gradual development of the pilot spot market in various provinces, the importance of load forecasting to the various main bodies of the spot power market has been constantly revealed. In order to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting in the spot market, and better highlight the randomness, periodicity and related trend of load fluctuation, this paper proposes a short-term load forecasting based on grey model and the EMD combination model, predict the future 24-hour load. In other words, GM(1,1) is used to predict the residual value sequence of EMD decomposition. In order to ensure the stability of the residual value sequence, improve the accuracy of the prediction and improve the effect of short-term load forecasting. Combined with MATLAB tools, the combined prediction model was simulated and verified by using the America PJM power market load data. The comparison results of the combined model with the single GM(1,1) and GM(1,2) respectively show that the combined model can significantly improve the accuracy of load forecasting compared with the traditional grey model method, providing the method guidance for load forecasting to better participate in the demand response under the new market environment.

Published in	American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems (Volume 7, Issue 4)
DOI	10.11648/j.epes.20180704.11
Page(s)	42-49
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2018. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Load Forecasting, EMD, Grey Model, Combination Model

References

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APA Style

Dong Jun, Wang Pei, Dou Xihao. (2018). Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on EMD-Grey Model. American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, 7(4), 42-49. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.epes.20180704.11

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ACS Style

Dong Jun; Wang Pei; Dou Xihao. Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on EMD-Grey Model. Am. J. Electr. Power Energy Syst. 2018, 7(4), 42-49. doi: 10.11648/j.epes.20180704.11

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AMA Style

Dong Jun, Wang Pei, Dou Xihao. Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on EMD-Grey Model. Am J Electr Power Energy Syst. 2018;7(4):42-49. doi: 10.11648/j.epes.20180704.11

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@article{10.11648/j.epes.20180704.11,
  author = {Dong Jun and Wang Pei and Dou Xihao},
  title = {Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on EMD-Grey Model},
  journal = {American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems},
  volume = {7},
  number = {4},
  pages = {42-49},
  doi = {10.11648/j.epes.20180704.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.epes.20180704.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.epes.20180704.11},
  abstract = {With the issuance of "electricity reform No. 9 document" in 2015, a new round of power system reform in China has been continuously pushed forward. With the gradual development of the pilot spot market in various provinces, the importance of load forecasting to the various main bodies of the spot power market has been constantly revealed. In order to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting in the spot market, and better highlight the randomness, periodicity and related trend of load fluctuation, this paper proposes a short-term load forecasting based on grey model and the EMD combination model, predict the future 24-hour load. In other words, GM(1,1) is used to predict the residual value sequence of EMD decomposition. In order to ensure the stability of the residual value sequence, improve the accuracy of the prediction and improve the effect of short-term load forecasting. Combined with MATLAB tools, the combined prediction model was simulated and verified by using the America PJM power market load data. The comparison results of the combined model with the single GM(1,1) and GM(1,2) respectively show that the combined model can significantly improve the accuracy of load forecasting compared with the traditional grey model method, providing the method guidance for load forecasting to better participate in the demand response under the new market environment.},
 year = {2018}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on EMD-Grey Model
AU  - Dong Jun
AU  - Wang Pei
AU  - Dou Xihao
Y1  - 2018/09/04
PY  - 2018
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.epes.20180704.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.epes.20180704.11
T2  - American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
JF  - American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
JO  - American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
SP  - 42
EP  - 49
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2326-9200
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.epes.20180704.11
AB  - With the issuance of "electricity reform No. 9 document" in 2015, a new round of power system reform in China has been continuously pushed forward. With the gradual development of the pilot spot market in various provinces, the importance of load forecasting to the various main bodies of the spot power market has been constantly revealed. In order to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting in the spot market, and better highlight the randomness, periodicity and related trend of load fluctuation, this paper proposes a short-term load forecasting based on grey model and the EMD combination model, predict the future 24-hour load. In other words, GM(1,1) is used to predict the residual value sequence of EMD decomposition. In order to ensure the stability of the residual value sequence, improve the accuracy of the prediction and improve the effect of short-term load forecasting. Combined with MATLAB tools, the combined prediction model was simulated and verified by using the America PJM power market load data. The comparison results of the combined model with the single GM(1,1) and GM(1,2) respectively show that the combined model can significantly improve the accuracy of load forecasting compared with the traditional grey model method, providing the method guidance for load forecasting to better participate in the demand response under the new market environment.
VL  - 7
IS  - 4
ER  -

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Author Information

Dong Jun

School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China
Wang Pei

School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China
Dou Xihao

School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China

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Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Dong Jun, Wang Pei, Dou Xihao. (2018). Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on EMD-Grey Model. American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, 7(4), 42-49. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.epes.20180704.11

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ACS Style

Dong Jun; Wang Pei; Dou Xihao. Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on EMD-Grey Model. Am. J. Electr. Power Energy Syst. 2018, 7(4), 42-49. doi: 10.11648/j.epes.20180704.11

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AMA Style

Dong Jun, Wang Pei, Dou Xihao. Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on EMD-Grey Model. Am J Electr Power Energy Syst. 2018;7(4):42-49. doi: 10.11648/j.epes.20180704.11

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.epes.20180704.11,
  author = {Dong Jun and Wang Pei and Dou Xihao},
  title = {Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on EMD-Grey Model},
  journal = {American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems},
  volume = {7},
  number = {4},
  pages = {42-49},
  doi = {10.11648/j.epes.20180704.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.epes.20180704.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.epes.20180704.11},
  abstract = {With the issuance of "electricity reform No. 9 document" in 2015, a new round of power system reform in China has been continuously pushed forward. With the gradual development of the pilot spot market in various provinces, the importance of load forecasting to the various main bodies of the spot power market has been constantly revealed. In order to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting in the spot market, and better highlight the randomness, periodicity and related trend of load fluctuation, this paper proposes a short-term load forecasting based on grey model and the EMD combination model, predict the future 24-hour load. In other words, GM(1,1) is used to predict the residual value sequence of EMD decomposition. In order to ensure the stability of the residual value sequence, improve the accuracy of the prediction and improve the effect of short-term load forecasting. Combined with MATLAB tools, the combined prediction model was simulated and verified by using the America PJM power market load data. The comparison results of the combined model with the single GM(1,1) and GM(1,2) respectively show that the combined model can significantly improve the accuracy of load forecasting compared with the traditional grey model method, providing the method guidance for load forecasting to better participate in the demand response under the new market environment.},
 year = {2018}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on EMD-Grey Model
AU  - Dong Jun
AU  - Wang Pei
AU  - Dou Xihao
Y1  - 2018/09/04
PY  - 2018
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.epes.20180704.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.epes.20180704.11
T2  - American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
JF  - American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
JO  - American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
SP  - 42
EP  - 49
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2326-9200
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.epes.20180704.11
AB  - With the issuance of "electricity reform No. 9 document" in 2015, a new round of power system reform in China has been continuously pushed forward. With the gradual development of the pilot spot market in various provinces, the importance of load forecasting to the various main bodies of the spot power market has been constantly revealed. In order to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting in the spot market, and better highlight the randomness, periodicity and related trend of load fluctuation, this paper proposes a short-term load forecasting based on grey model and the EMD combination model, predict the future 24-hour load. In other words, GM(1,1) is used to predict the residual value sequence of EMD decomposition. In order to ensure the stability of the residual value sequence, improve the accuracy of the prediction and improve the effect of short-term load forecasting. Combined with MATLAB tools, the combined prediction model was simulated and verified by using the America PJM power market load data. The comparison results of the combined model with the single GM(1,1) and GM(1,2) respectively show that the combined model can significantly improve the accuracy of load forecasting compared with the traditional grey model method, providing the method guidance for load forecasting to better participate in the demand response under the new market environment.
VL  - 7
IS  - 4
ER  -

Copy | Download